Price decision, August 2024

Hershey raises prices. Does it hit its 2025 earnings goal?

Hershey raises prices by

+6.5%

Default: what Hershey said it would get, about 6–7 points (earnings call, 1 August 2024).

Mars raises prices by

+10.5%

Default: Mars's increase on chocolate from December 2024, 10–11% (RBC store checks, via Investing.com).

How it works

Two things decide it: how many people buy less chocolate when all chocolate prices rise, and how many switch brands when Hershey raises prices more than Mars.

When all chocolate prices rise, how many people buy less?

Best estimate 0.5% per 1%: Circana, 2023 US chocolate, dollars +5.8% and units −5.4%.

When Hershey raises prices more than Mars, how many switch?

Best estimate about 0.7% per 1%, low confidence: set between fits to Hershey's 2023 and early-2024 volume. No published study measures it.

The math

Sources and limits

The code is public: github.com/owencosans/Brandenburg

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